The U.S. multifamily forecast has been modestly upgraded, according to Apartments.com, an industry-leading online marketplace of CoStar Group, Inc.
National multifamily vacancy is projected to remain near 7.9% through 2026 before declining to 7.5% by the end of 2027. Stabilized vacancy is expected to remain relatively steady through the end of the year before beginning to descent in 2027 as the market continues to absorb the large number of units added over the past two years.
Annual rent growth is now expected to hold at 1.4% through the fourth quarter, a 50-basis-point revision to the previous year-end forecast. The Q4 2027 projection was raised from 1.9% to 2.6%.
“The higher rent growth outlook reflects the substantial progress made this year in absorbing excess inventory accumulated during 2024 and 2025,” said Grant Montgomery, national director of multifamily analytics at CoStar Group. “Demand has exceeded expectations while the number of new project deliveries has continued to decline, reducing vacancy faster than anticipated.”
“The risks to the forecast appear balanced,” said Montgomery. “Renter demand has remained resilient despite slower employment growth, but the outlook depends on the labor market remaining broadly stable. A shift from weak hiring toward more meaningful job losses could slow household formation and lower apartment demand. Reduced renter purchasing power due to persistent inflationary pressures could also lead some renter households to choose less expensive units, retain roommates, or delay forming new households, which would also reduce demand.”