From cautious optimism to economic uncertainty, the spring leasing season has featured a variety of dynamics for the rental-housing industry. Tim Bruss, managing director of asset management for San Francisco-based Hamilton Zanze, recently took the time to gauge the pulse of the market.
How does the 2026 spring leasing season compare to spring 2025 overall?
Bruss: Our overall occupancy rate is largely the same as this time last year, although we are offering more specials this year, which impacts our overall rent level. That being said, we have seen a slow-but-steady upward trend in occupancy over the past few months, and we’re hopeful our portfolio-wide occupancy level will surpass 94% in the coming months.
Regarding rent roll improvements specifically, three components factor in — occupancy, rental rates and specials along with concessions. Occupancy is the first area where you want to see improvement, then once operators feel comfortable that they’re at a sustainable occupancy, they’ll often pull back on the properties with high amounts of specials or concessions.
The recent concessions I’ve observed are everything from four to eight weeks free — even 10 weeks depending on the market. Overall, the industry should feel encouraged about the slight uptick these last like two or three months after the winter doldrums. It feels like we’re getting some momentum going.
What variations have you seen in the market this spring, and which are performing best?
Bruss: I like to say every property and every market has its own personality. Some could thrive in the middle of summer while some might struggle during the same time period. A market like Phoenix, for instance, might perform better during leasing season and softer in midsummer when it’s 110 degrees.
Currently, our top five performing markets are Utah, Maryland, Virginia, Texas and Washington. In general, markets with high supply and less construction completions are performing the best.
Florida and North Carolina are among our lower-occupied markets, but it’s worth noting we have smaller sample sizes of properties in those locales. That said, we’re really observing strong leasing velocity in Florida and North Carolina right now, even double of what we’re experiencing in some other markets.
Generally speaking, there are other markets where you’ll sacrifice some occupancy in order to get stronger rental rates.
Has the general economic uncertainty affected renter behavior?
Bruss: Yeah, I think renters are being a little more careful right now. They’re often more reluctant to move and take on a higher lease because of the underlying economic concerns. The unknowns related to gas prices can be a mitigating factor, particularly in certain areas of the country where it’s climbing above $6 per gallon.
The AI movement adds another layer of uncertainty, particularly with younger renters considering a career trajectory. For 20-somethings coming out of college, AI could be such a disruptor that some are reconsidering their path and don’t know what sector to pursue.
Inflationary aspects can make renters more reluctant to sign that lease at a nicer place for an extra $200 or something similar, because there is so much uncertainty. With common goods more expensive across the board, price sensitivity certainly factors in. That concept is ever present, but it feels weightier now.
What market nuances have you observed and how have you adjusted?
Bruss: Maryland has an impressive 95.5 occupancy rate, but there is a lot to digest beyond the surface. Maryland hasn’t experienced much incoming supply, so new residents don’t have as many options as somewhere like Austin.
Our top five markets mentioned above—Utah, Maryland, Virginia, Texas and Washington—all have various reasons for their performance.
We’ve certainly leaned into the flexible rent trends in these markets and beyond, which enable an impact beyond classic concessions. While waived application fees or reduced down payment or security deposit are common in the industry, sometimes we’ll extend a special into the holiday months.
Is oversupply continuing to cause challenges in particular markets?
Bruss: I think Austin is still soft along with Phoenix, although we’re starting to see it turn a little bit. Colorado is another market that seems to be improving in spots. Fort Collins, for instance, has been a little stickier but Denver and Colorado Springs were really impacted by the wave of new supply.
Ultimately, knowing the average occupancy rate is 93.5% right now, anything below that’s pulling it down, anything above that’s pulling it up. It’s about pulling back layers of the onion to understand what big-picture trends might be pulling a number down or pushing a number up—and why.
The layers go beyond occupancy and leasing velocity, so you have to figure out where you should be pressing a little bit harder and where the current trends seem solid. For instance, consider a community where the renewal rent trade out is closer to 4%, and then the rent trade out is only 0.5%. This enables you to prioritize accordingly.
For operators, what will be the primary determinant factor for the rest of 2026?
Bruss: Supply and demand is the ultimate component at the end of the day—particularly the supply. While that is a huge part of the equation, customer service remains a deterministic factor.
It always comes down to the people—who is pulling the levers to improve things. You have to be aware of the challenges in a particular locale, and when to pull back on specials and concessions when things begin to improve. We have a property manager at a Colorado property who is among the best in our portfolio, and she has a really firm grasp on the pulse of the market. She understands what’s going on with the comps, how residents are reacting to their pricing and the types of units that are the most attractive renters in the area. She understands the market and is extremely nimble. Residents might be reacting more favorably to a classic unit versus an upgraded unit, and she is able to manage the pricing and packages accordingly.
So, our people are definitely important. Teams also have to navigate state- and locale-specific legislation and understand how that can impact residents in the area. Staying ahead of the curve on these concepts can help prevent any potential lapses in occupancy.